Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The average figure of per-day killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh administrative data. But, security experts have cautioned that homicide numbers may not signal better national safety.

Marked Drop in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had over these months is very significant,” the President stated, explaining that last month the lowest amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, security researchers warned that using murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for assessing the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was also concerning because it could obscure days when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Using the daily average makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters protested in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to build a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas concluded.