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Amid the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.