A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
