Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
