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For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a resolute stance on Ukraine. After making threats of "significant consequences" last August if Vladimir Putin continued obstructing peace discussions, he ultimately enacted major sanctions on Russia's primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his military invasion in the region.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or European input, he has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Invasion

This proposal would in practice favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively compromise that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business background, the former president continues to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, like ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. However, Putin's war is not only about occupying a damaged area of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's increasing autocracy withholds them.

Land Surrenders

While keeping in position the currently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would require Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukrainian military defenses critically compromised.

This region is the location of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, providing Putin a clear route to Kyiv in case he eventually opt to renew the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a move that would facilitate additional fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the plan places no similar limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, the plan asserts: "Any extremist belief system and practices must be opposed and prohibited." As if to underscore this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no obligation that Putin jeopardize his regime by holding elections in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in law its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has violated similar treaties in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a handback of seized territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should we have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "strong coordinated defense action" if Russia resume its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars range from fuzzy to alarming. The plan would not just block the nation accession to NATO but also preclude member states from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from replenishing his diminished forces, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Concern

A separate parallel deal apparently would grant the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "major, planned, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. But in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against future invasion – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, such as Trump, to react with force to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not